I know, I know, its some sort of divine intervention betting system I am talking about and no betting system affects the house edge. My question though is what does that really mean? Is it that when I sit down at the table, 1 out of my next 173 playing sessions I can expect to have an 8 hand losing streak? Or does it mean that on any given loss it is a 1 in 173 chance that it was the first of 8 losses coming my way? In that columns’ example of a player losing 8 consecutive hands of blackjack the odds were (.5251^8 or about 1 in 173). That column seemed to put the mathematics to that 'feeling' a player can get. You know those emotional thoughts that pop in head while gambling (well maybe not your head), 'I’m due for a win!'

I was reading through some of your past Ask the Wizard columns and saw your calculation of the probability of a string of losses in the AugColumn. I would think that just about all recreational players bet on feel once in a while at least. Occasionally I will increase the bet because I 'feel' like I am going to win the next one. I’ve been playing blackjack for quite awhile using basic strategy, mostly betting an even unit each hand. It would take about 5 years playing blackjack 40 hours a week before this piece of advice saved the player one unit.

Following this rule will result in an extra unit once every 1117910 hands. So standing is the marginally better play.

The two right numbers in the bottom row show that the overall expected value for hitting is -0.540355 and for standing is -0.540293. But is there any truth in this? Obviously the dealer is inconsequential to the cards dealt (I like to say the dealer is 'simply a messenger of the cards') but are streaks in an 8-deck shoe inevitable, and even predictable? Or is it more like your roulette example, where the odds of each new round are exactly the same? Thanks once again for your web site. Well, more of an observation: when the dealer pulls a 5 on a 16 for their sixth consecutive win, there's always someone who gets up and leaves the table, muttering that the dealer is a mean cruel heartless soul, and goes in search of a 'hotter' table. I always check out your site before I head to Las Vegas or Lake Tahoe just to remind me how to play smartly.Īnyway, on to my question. Your information is quite valuable to both the beginning and expert gambler, and you present your findings in a pleasant, understandable, and even humorous manner. First of all, I would like to add my name to the growing list of people who love your web site.

Calculate probability of winning craps